New Delhi, 23 May 2017: IndiaPowerTrading.info (‘IPT.info’), a company that provides innovative products at the cross action of artificial intelligence and electricity market, today announces the launch of the second version of its forecast model for the day-ahead electricity markets in India.
The new version of the forecast model incorporates weather parameters and their impact on electricity prices in the day-ahead electricity market at the Indian Energy Exchange. This new addition to the existing price forecasting model is a further addition to the existing model which uses Support Vector Algorithm (‘SVM’), backed by Artificial Intelligence.
Analysts and data scientists at IPT.info expect a significant improvement in the already exceptionally high forecast accuracy with the addition of weather data as parameters to the model. The SVM model had delivered an accuracy of 93-95% across all regions on RTC basis consistently over the last several months.
Weather parameters, like minimum and maximum temperatures, were separated into various ranges (normal, low, maximum etc.) to identify the impact of their fluctuations on day-ahead market prices. The improved model has already shown substantial improvement in price forecast accuracy during the first three weeks of May.
Saurabh Shrivastav, Head-Power Markets, while emphasising on the business application of the new model said,
“the new model comes at time when the day-ahead market is witnessing sustained huge swings in prices due to increased demand pushed by weather changes as well as supply issues in some states. This new model will comprehensively deliver price forecasts to enable stakeholders take informed and financially efficient business decisions.”
The new model opens extensive opportunities to further improvement and expansion into modelling and forecast of other critical parameters in the electricity sector. IPT.info data scientists would look into real-time inclusion of weather data which will have applications into prediction and forecast of real-time demand forecast.
Results of the new forecast model are published everyday for next day’s trading session. Subscribers of IndiaPowerTrading.info can access these daily forecast reports on the website as well as via email.
New Delhi, Thursday 24 November 2016: Accurate forecast and scheduling techniques are critical for sustainable growth of renewable energy market in India, industry leaders and experts concluded at a panel discussion during the Sustainable Business Leadership Forum 2016 in New Delhi today. The panel discussion was jointly conducted by cKinetics and IndiaPowerTrading.info, a data & analytics portal of Climate Connect Limited servicing the next generation of power markets in India.
The topic for panel discussion – Can renewable energy companies become power companies of the future? – resonated with all panelists as well as attendees who were present as the session in large numbers. Some of the leading companies and stakeholders in the renewable energy sector were represented at the panel discussion. Representatives from ReNew Power Ventures Limited, ACME Solar, BSES Rajdhani Power Limited, Continuum Wind Energy, Statkraft, Indian Energy Exchange, Shakti Foundation, and the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) were part of the panel. The panel discussion was moderated by cKinetics Managing Director Upendra Bhatt.
Several panelists agreed that while major renewable energy technologies – wind and solar – have achieved grid parity in terms of pricing and tariff, true grid parity, in terms of dispatch and procurement by discoms, remains elusive. Renewable energy remains a big unknown for most of the stakeholders, due to slow pace of reforms, intermittent nature of power supply from renewable energy sources, among other factors.
One of the IPPs stated that forecast and scheduling regulations are still in their nascent stage and are not uniform across states which makes it difficult for compliance. However, representatives of all IPPs present at the panel discussion committed to adhering to all enforced and impending regulations. They expressed confidence that Indian RE IPPs can adopt whatever practices are being followed in developed markets.
Accurate forecasting and scheduling practices shall enable utilities and grid operators to shed inhibitions related to procurement of electricity from renewable energy projects. One of the panelists emphasised on the need for forecasting techniques based on Artificial Intelligence (AI). These are self-learning techniques that generate forecast reports based on a plethora of factors selected automatically based on their likely affect on power generation.
Saurabh Shrivastava, Head-Power Markets at IndiaPowerTrading.info was also one of the panelists and concurred with the opinion regarding forecast and scheduling. While expressing support for AI-based forecast techniques, Shrivastava said, “We are already seeing high success rate of energy forecasting based on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. IndiaPowerTrading.info has successfully implemented its forecasting and automated scheduling technology for two utility-scale solar power projects in Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.”
At the end of the panel discussion, Shrivastva congratulated Bhatt for conducting a stimulating discussion on the role of renewable energy projects in India’s power sector.
New Delhi, Monday 06 June 2016: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT.info”), a fast emerging data and analytics solutions provider in the Indian power market, today announced the launch of its new price forecasting model for the day-ahead power market. Built upon the existing multivariate linear regression model, the new AI (Artificial Intelligence) model is based on the Support Vector Machine (“SVM”) algorithm.
The Econometrics and Data Sciences (“EDS”) team of IndiaPowerTrading.info reported that the new SVM model improved the price forecast accuracy by an average of 3% across time blocks during the period of January to April 2016. The accuracy of RTC price forecast improved by 5% over the last period.
The new model uses an algorithm based on Artificial intelligent technique usually applied for classification, and takes into account more external parameters making it more dynamic and robust. The SVM model has resulted in improvement of price forecast accuracy to around 93-95% across all regions on RTC basis.
Speaking about the importance of this improved model and its business application, IndiaPowerTrading.info Energy Economist Chandan Kumar said,“After continuous market interaction, we realized that price forecast can make business sense only if its accuracy is over 95%. Keeping this mind, we made changes to our initial model of multivariate linear regression and come up with this updated version of day-ahead market price forecast model. This model is more granular, consisting of highly relevant input parameters, and technically more dynamic and robust. This model has consistently clocked an accuracy of over 95% when back tested on last 4 months data. With this updated version, we are confident to generate highly accurate price forecast for day-ahead spot market on a consistent basis.”
Sharing details of the technical aspects of the new SVM model, Junior Data Scientist Vivek Mishra stated, “Using the power of Artificial Intelligence we have refined our day-ahead power market price model to achieve even higher accuracy benchmarks. This new model uses state-of-the-art algorithms in machine learning and is much more adaptable to the market behaviour. In order to fully appreciate the market sentiment we have included several external parameters which are stored in our databases; these external parameters aid the model to predict sudden shift in prices. We will continue our research and development on these models to raise the accuracy benchmark bars even higher by streaming in more external factors and further optimising the current techniques.”
Results of the new forecast model are published by everyday for next day’s trading session. Subscribers of IndiaPowerTrading.info can access these daily forecast reports on the website as well as via email.
New Delhi, Tuesday 24 May 2016: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT”), a fast emerging data and analytics solutions provider in the Indian power market, today announced the launch of its new monthly report on bilateral power market price analysis. The new publication shall complement the weekly publication with detailed information of all buyers and sellers in the bilateral power market; the weekly traded volume report has been in publication since November 2015.
The new report – Bilateral Power Market Price Periscope (“Price Periscope”) – gives IPT subscribers an insight into all major transactions taking place in the bilateral power market. Aspects of a transaction covered in the report include,
This revolutionary, analytical yet concise report will serve as an important information tool for all stakeholders in the short-term power sector, enabling them to shape their future transactions efficiently.
In addition to this monthly report, IPT users also have access to the historical price and volume data for bilateral power market transactions. This information is available on IPT for download as well as analysis using in-built IT tools.
Saurabh Shrivastava (Head-Power Markets) said, “The monthly Bilateral Price Periscope report is a significant addition to our company’s rapidly growing basket of products and services. I believe, the report is one-of-its-kind in the market which will give its readers an informative edge over competitors. For the overall market, I think, the report will bring it transparency and open new business opportunities.”
IndiaPowerTrading.info Launches Power Market Data APIs
New Delhi, Tuesday 05 April 2016: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT”) a fast emerging data and analytics solutions provider in the Indian power market today announced the launch of a set of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) to simplify access to Indian power market data and feeds. The web API service offers developers a high degrees of flexibility and plethora of options to create their own customised applications.
Increased competition in power procurement through medium and short-term markets remains a major hurdle for industries and commercial entities. Discoms, on the other hand, face the challenge to improve financial and operational efficiency through the utilisation of all available power sources including long-term market. Generators face the challenge to maximise profits in a highly regulated sector of the economy. Thus, access to timely, accurate and concise data is paramount.
The APIs, central to IPT’s Web Services, serve as single point destination for data assistance in Indian power markets. Users can access a whole range of parameters that affect the power trading and renewable energy certificate markets. In addition to the data directly available from the power exchanges, APIs also exist for fetching data, in real-time, from several state and central level regulatory bodies.
Sanand Sule, Head of Technology Solutions team of IndiaPowerTrading.info said, “IPT Web Services achieves country-wide standardization of big power data by aggregating and crunching it every minute from more than 100 non-standard web and file sources, and offering it as a simple REST API. This, coupled with high availability, accuracy and data security, drastically reduces traders’ research and decision time. IPT Web Services offer an easily consumable data resource to developers who can perform advanced analytics and visualizations, which could give rise to next generation software for the power sector.”
Some of the unique data services offered through the APIs include the list of major buyers and sellers in the collective as well as the bilateral power markets, and prices of the bilateral power transactions across time ranges.
Applauding this achievement of the Technology Solutions team of IndiaPowerTrading.info, Saurabh Shrivastava (Head-Power Markets) said, “The launch of IPT Web Services marks a critical milestone in our path to offer industry-first and state-of-the-art solutions to the stakeholders of the Indian power market. These APIs bring the pulse of the Indian power market to the stakeholders’ mobile or desktop which enables them to take informed yet prompt business decisions.”
A complete list of APIs available at IPT Web Services can be accessed at http://indiapowertrading.info/ipt-web-services/
IndiaPowerTrading.info Achieves Over 84% Accuracy In First Cycle Of Day+14 Price Forecast For Day-ahead Power Market
New Delhi, Thursday 17 2016: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT”) is pleased to announce that it crossed another major milestone in its endeavour to provide path-breaking and industry-first forecast services for electricity prices in the day-ahead market in India.
The Economics and Data Sciences team reported on 16 March 2016 that it achieved over 84% accuracy in the forecast of day+14 electricity prices in the day-ahead market across various regions. The team had forecast electricity prices at the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) for delivery date 17 March 2016 in a report circulated 4 March 2016, that is 14 days in advance, to select subscribers of IndiaPowerTrading.info.
While sharing details of the comparison between the IPT forecast and actual price discovered on the power exchange, IPT Chief Economist Chandan Kumar stated that the high accuracy will act as a solid foundation to further refine the analytics and modelling infrastructure and provide stakeholders with longer-term forecasts; this will enable them to take effective financial decisions well in advance.
The proprietary IPT modelling and forecasting platform delivered the highest accuracy for N2 region where the forecasted RTC price was accurate up to 99.8% of the actual RTC price discovered at IEX on 17 March 2016. Price forecast accuracy achieved in E2, S1, and W2 regions stood at 88.0%, 86.7%, and 84.1%, respectively.
Applauding the latest achievement by the Economics and Data Sciences division, Saurabh Shrivastava (Head-Power Markets) said, “The high accuracy achieved in the day+14 price forecast adds another critical offering in the IPT basket of products and services. This is a significant landmark after we successfully achieved improved price forecast accuracy on national holidays in January this year.”
IndiaPowerTrading.info offers a large basket of products and services to its subscribers. The day+14 price forecast report is sent everyday, on an iterative basis, to its subscribers along with the day+1 price forecast. The market commentary report – Morning Megawatt, one of the flagship and oldest products, – is also sent every weekday before the trading session begins. IndiaPowerTrading.info shall continue to offer an increasing number of services and products to its subscribers to help them take informed and profitable decisions in the Indian power market.
New Delhi, March 09, 2016: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT”) is pleased to announce the successful hosting of CEOs Round Table as Knowledge Partners to South Asia Forum for Energy Efficiency (SAFEE) at the India International Centre, New Delhi, on Tuesday, 08 March 2016.
The event was addressed by senior dignitaries from energy industry, like Mr. Udesh Kohli (Chairman, Construction Council of India), Mr. KS Popli (CMD, IREDA), Mr. SK Soonee (CEO, POSOCO), Mr. Subir Sen (PGCIL), Mr P. Varshney (Skill Development Council), Dr. Atanu Mukherjee (President, DBTC), Ms Juhi Rajput (MD, CNFC Media), Mr. Rajesh Mahajan (ED, KISPL) and many other Top Executives from Energy Sector.
While sharing views on the recent allocation to energy sector in Budget 2016-17, it was discussed that flexibility in all aspects, including conventional, renewable, frequency and currency, is the key to achieve a developed market scenario. Forecasting and forward looking approach will lead to achievement of long term objectives.
Comments were shared on the New Tariff Policy, which the panel considered to be a constructive move as every stakeholder in the whole ecosystem is expected to gain something from the changes. Electricity Amendment Bill is also expected to encourage competition and thus promote consumer oriented market.
“We are glad to have the presence of Top executives form the sector to discuss the bottlenecks in the industry and share their views and experiences in benefit of market development. We look forward to have more of such sessions in future.” said Saurabh Shrivastava, Head-IndiaPowerTrading.info.
IndiaPowerTrading.info Launches Day+14 Price Forecast For Collective Power Market
New Delhi, March 01, 2016: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT”) is pleased to announce addition of yet another power market forecast report in the basket of products it offers exclusively to its customers. IndiaPowerTrading.info today released its first day+14 price forecast report for the day-ahead power market.
The day+14 price forecast report, published by the IPT Economics and Data Sciences team, provides price forecasts for major demand and supply regions in the day-ahead market as listed on the power exchanges. The report includes price forecast data for a particular delivery day, 14 days in advance. IPT team shall issue the report daily (on a rolling basis) for a particular delivery day after updating the forecast model with the most recent market conditions and parameters.
While sharing details of the achievement of this marked improvement in forecast accuracy, IPT Chief Economist Chandan Kumar said, “Moving ahead from a very accurate DAM price forecast, team at IPT is confident to publish short term power price forecast for two weeks ahead market on a rolling basis. With consistent absolute and directional accuracy, it can help generators and distributors to take strategic decisions in advance. Over a period, positive impacts can be seen in their profit and loss account with improvements in their return on investment (RoI).”
Commenting on the new publication and future possibilities, IPT Data Scientist Simon Kuttruf said, “Building on the success and the broad acceptance we achieved with our machine learning model for day-ahead forecasts, we are now confident to respond to the market need for longer forecast horizons. We are glad to roll out today our new publication with two week ahead price predictions, to our best knowledge the first of a kind on the Indian market. Continuously improving our AI algorithms, we look forward to the feedback from our esteemed customers.”
“The Fortnight Price Forecast- Version 1.0, is a significant milestone in IPT.info’s journey. This state-of-the-art feature, models effect of various external parameters to generate reasonable accuracy. We will include many more factors in our Version 2.0 release, shortly.” said Saurabh Shrivastava, Product Manager-IndiaPowerTrading.info.
IndiaPowerTrading.info is an online information & analytics platform, to facilitate the Indian Power Market stakeholders (buyers, sellers, IPPs, traders and other information seekers) with latest real-time market insights. We believe ‘Information is Power’ and the right information at right time synergizes to possess the desired business edge and improved profitability. IndiaPowerTrading.info is powered by Climate Connect Limited.
IndiaPowerTrading.info Achieves Huge Improvement On Day-Ahead Market Price Forecast For Holidays
New Delhi, January 29 2016: IndiaPowerTrading.info (“IPT”) is pleased to announce achievement of a significant milestone in its endeavour to provide pathbreaking price forecasting services in the Indian short-term market. IndiaPowerTrading.info successfully improved upon the accuracy of its forecasting model for clearing price in the day-ahead market on holidays.
The IPT Economics and Data Sciences team achieved 85% accuracy in forecasting the clearing price at the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) during peak hours for delivery of 26 January 2015. This is a significant improvement over the price forecast accuracy of 50% on the previous major national holiday of 25 December 2015 (Christmas).
While sharing details of the achievement of this marked improvement in forecast accuracy, IPT Chief Economist Chandan Kumar said, “the DAM Price Forecast model has adapted over last 3 months and improved the accuracy even on holidays despite a fall in demand. We achieved an accuracy of approximately 85% during peak hours on Republic Day i.e. 26th January as compared to just over 50% during peak hours on Diwali last year i.e. 11th November. Although percentage decline in peak hour demand on Diwali was higher than that on Republic Day. With inclusion of various external parameters such as impact of holidays, smoothening of outliers etc, we aim to achieve higher accuracy consistently.”
Giving a glimpse of what went behind this crucial exercise, IPT Data Scientist Simon Kuttruf said, “Leveraging the power of artificial intelligence approaches, our forecasting model has proven to be highly adaptive to changing market conditions such as a sudden decline in electricity demand during the national holiday of 26 January. We continue to refine our algorithms with elaborate integration of relevant external variables and suitable data processing techniques.”
Subscribers of IndiaPowerTrading.info receive price forecast reports every evening before the trading session in the day-ahead market the next day.
“The significant improvement in the price forecast accuracy on national holidays will help us provide better service to our customers. We expect to create new benchmarks soon by incorporating the effects of various external parameters to further improve upon the forecast accuracy,” said Saurabh Shrivastava, Product Manager-IndiaPowerTrading.info.
New Delhi, October 19 2015: Climate Connect Limited (“Climate Connect”), on 15 October 2015, announced the launch of IndiaPowerTrading.info, a one stop-shop online portal dedicated to provide timely and accurate information related to India’s growing power market. The newest addition to online roster of Climate Connect offer industry-first features and tracks data from over 100 government websites in real-time.
IndiaPowerTrading.info also provides daily price forecasts for the day-ahead market. The forecasts are generated using artificial intelligence algorithms and fundamental econometric models and are delivered to the stakeholders every day well before the bidding starts at the power exchanges.
IndiaPowerTrading.info uses state-of-the-art, user-friendly interfaces which integrate cutting-edge IT analytical tools with multidimensional data. Users can access a wide variety of data related to the Indian power market including, prices and traded volume, major buyers and sellers from each region, and historical trends in power procurement and sales by all participating entities in the day-ahead and bilateral markets.
IndiaPowerTrading.info also offers information on congestion, generation outage and transmission outages in real-time helping traders, buyers and generators take quick and efficient business decisions. Stakeholders can compare, in real-time, the scheduled and actual drawl of each state to identify the next business opportunity.
The online portal was launched at the Sustainable Business Leadership Forum 2015 in Delhi. The event was attended by some of India’s leading power traders, independent power producers, and open access consumers.
Speaking at the sidelines of the Sustainable Business Leadership Forum 2015, Climate Connect CEO and Founder, Nitin Tanwar said, “We believe that the Indian power market is set for a revolutionary change driven by efficient and sustainable business approach. We, through IndiaPowerTrading.info, want to provide the tools to all stakeholders to make their business, whether it may be in power generation, procurement, or facilitating transactions, efficient and financially sustainable. I would like to invite all stakeholders to check out IndiaPowerTrading.info, which we believe is the future of information and business intelligence in the Indian power sector.”
“Power trading can be a straining business, especially with the ever-increasing competition. Through IndiaPowerTrading.info we strive to increase ease in doing business. We are providing customisable data and analytics solutions that would help a user stay ahead of the competition,” said Saurabh Shrivastava, Product Manager-IndiaPowerTrading.info.
Apart from the online portal, IndiaPowerTrading.info is also available through an Android application that can be downloaded from the Google Playstore.
About Climate Connect Limited
Climate Connect is an information business that provides news, data, forecasts and related media solutions to companies involved in new emerging energy environment markets. Founded in 2010, it runs a network of media outlets and develops enterprise level solutions that provide access to information. Network of websites include: www.CaliforniaCarbon.INFO | www.cleantechdeals.com | www.chinacarbon.net.cn | www.IndiaPowerTrading.info
and several more are in the pipeline. The firm generates revenues by selling subscription packages to the content, licensing the content, providing enterprise level solutions that leverage the unique mix of content, IT and knowledge it possesses.
Editors can email CEO of Climate Connect at email@example.com or call at +91 98-88-666794.
IndiaPowerTrading.info is a revolutionary approach to market research in the Indian power sector, created to give expert insights and analysis.
Daily summary of all power market transactions including bilateral open access segment and power exchanges.